Notch Protocol
A Cryptographic Framework for Verifiable Prediction Scoring and Alpha Commoditization
Qais Alassa (Bethlehem, Palestine) · Osama Alashqar (Oslo, Norway)
Technical Specification v0.1 · March 2026
Read the Paper
The full technical specification covering the commitment scheme, Brier score calibration, difficulty adjustment, the instrument layer (Alpha Passes, Futures, Indices), oracle architecture, and $NOTCH token economics.
Abstract
We present NOTCH, a protocol for the cryptographic commitment, verification, and scoring of price predictions on Ethereum Layer 2. The protocol implements a commit-reveal scheme scored using the Brier Score — a strictly proper scoring rule where expected score is uniquely optimized when stated confidence equals true belief.
Key Contributions
- Commit-reveal scheme making predictions unforgeable and non-repudiable
- Brier Score calibration — penalizing both overconfidence and underconfidence
- Three financial instruments: Alpha Passes, Alpha Futures, Alpha Indices
- Difficulty multiplier adjusting scores for prediction complexity
- Sybil resistance through calibration scoring + staking requirements
Deployment
Designed for Arbitrum One with a complete prediction cycle costing approximately $0.01–$0.03 in gas.